SpaceX just locked in an exclusive partnership to use only Nvidia chips, sending NVDA shares up 1.8% in pre-market trading on August 5. Elon Musk called it straightforward: they picked Nvidia because the chips are the best. Markets liked that vote of confidence.
Yet ChatGPT's analysis tempers the excitement. The AI model expects modest gains through 2026, predicting a roughly 10% rally that would push Nvidia stock to $238 per share by December 31. The reasoning is simple: SpaceX needs to actually build out the infrastructure to capitalize on the deal. That means constructing new data centers, launching more satellites, installing hardware across quarters. None of that happens overnight.
The CapEx shadow looming over gains
Capital expenditures are becoming the real problem. SpaceX stock itself took a beating recently on overspending concerns, and Nvidia faces its own CapEx headwinds. Investors are also watching regulatory risks, wider volatility, and the risk that valuations could compress if growth slows. Nvidia shares trade at expensive multiples already, which leaves little room for disappointment.
Still, ChatGPT acknowledged the deal as a bullish catalyst. Locking SpaceX into Nvidia hardware expands the semiconductor giant's addressable market and strengthens its competitive moat in AI chips. That's real business expansion, not just talk.
For context, NVDA stock is up just 12.23% year-to-date, from $188.85 to $211.94. The S&P 500 is outpacing it at 12.80% YTD. So the 10% upside ChatGPT sees would put Nvidia back in line with broader market momentum, though it hardly looks like the kind of explosive move the semiconductor sector saw when the AI boom kicked off in late 2022.
This is informational content, not financial advice. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
