Gianni Infantino reached out to the Trump administration to shore up his position at FIFA. The call went to Secretary of State Marco Rubio, according to the New York Post. It marks an escalation as internal revolt spreads through world football's governing body.

Traders on Polymarket have priced Infantino's departure by year-end at 36.5%, nearly double the 19% level from a week earlier. The shift happened fast. Contract volume exploded to $151,700 in just seven days, out of $156,400 total since launch on July 6. Open interest now sits near $76,000.

The timing connects to a favor FIFA granted Trump months ago. In July, FIFA's disciplinary committee cleared Belgian striker Folarin Balogun, reversing an automatic suspension that Trump had publicly pushed for. The president claimed credit on Truth Social: "Thank you to FIFA for doing what was right, and reversing a great injustice." Now Infantino appears to be calling in that debt.

Rubio is not a stranger to the FIFA chief. They met in the Oval Office last November during a World Cup task force meeting. That channel ran through Carlos Cordeiro, a former Goldman Sachs banker who represented FIFA in those talks. Cordeiro resigned Friday over a controversial sale plan, cutting off Infantino's direct line to Trump's inner circle.

The market caught the collapse before news outlets did. On July 30, after all 55 UEFA associations unanimously backed a boycott, the contract still sat near 20%. It jumped above 40% the next day once Infantino's own executives turned on him. Chief operating officer Kevin Lamour told the Associated Press staff had been deceived. "It is the project of one person," he said.

Polymarket traders are betting on resignation, not defeat. The contract expires December 31, while FIFA's presidential election happens in March. Challengers have until November 18 to announce, so the market is pricing an exit within months rather than a loss at the ballot. The asset in dispute matters. Cordeiro valued FIFA's revenue at $15 billion over the World Cup cycle. Josh Kushner's fund had offered $4.2 billion for a stake.

Polymarket now trades Infantino's survival odds at just over 63%.

This article is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice or investment guidance.