On August 1, Master Sgt. Gannon Ken Van Dyke, a US Army Special Forces soldier, filed a motion to dismiss charges accusing him of using classified military intelligence to place bets on Polymarket.
Van Dyke, 38, stationed at Fort Bragg, took part in planning and executing "Operation Absolute Resolve" against Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro in early 2026. He signed nondisclosure agreements beginning December 8, 2025.
Between late December 2025 and January 2026, prosecutors say he made about 13 bets on Polymarket related to US military actions in Venezuela, including predictions on Maduro's potential removal and the use of war powers. The soldier allegedly wagered around $33,034 and profited over $400,000.
The charges, unsealed in late April 2026, include unlawful use of classified information, commodities fraud, and wire fraud. Van Dyke pleaded not guilty shortly after.
The defense argues that betting on prediction markets is not a crime, even if the bettor has inside knowledge. Their case challenges whether insider trading laws apply to prediction market wagers, since these contracts don’t fit traditional definitions of securities or commodities.
Prosecutors maintain that using classified information to profit on any market falls under existing laws. They treat Polymarket contracts as commodities, aiming to apply commodity fraud statutes.
This case could set a precedent for how prediction markets are regulated, with implications for both legal frameworks and market participants.
This content is for informational purposes and does not constitute financial advice.
