Oil traders are losing faith in a crude price spike before year's end. Just 4.7% of prediction market participants now expect crude to hit a new all-time high by September 30, down from 5% a week earlier. The shift reflects cooling expectations even as Middle East tensions keep supply tight.
Donald Trump's fresh attack on Exxon and Chevron for "excessive profits" during the shortage is adding political weight to that bearish tilt. He's demanding retail gasoline cuts, echoing pressure he applied back in late June. Both giants reported record earnings recently, making them easy targets. The message is clear: expect retail prices to move lower regardless of what crude does.
Markets are reading this as a signal that oil companies will face forced concessions. That political squeeze, combined with tight but not catastrophic supply fundamentals, explains why the December 31 market sits at just 11.5% YES for a new all-time high. Participants see stable or falling prices through the year's close. Geopolitical shocks could flip the script fast, but for now, the momentum favors sideways-to-lower trading as political pressure and profit expectations collide.
This article is informational only and should not be considered financial advice. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.
