SpaceX shares hit $118.21 on Tuesday, erasing nearly half the gains from their June peak. Seven weeks into public trading, the stock now sits below its $135 IPO price, and two major events this week promise to test whether the company can stabilize.

The IPO itself was a textbook success. SpaceX priced at $135 on June 11 and raised $85.7 billion, with retail demand so fierce that orders through Robinhood, Fidelity, and Schwab got partial fills or nothing. The float was tiny, less than 5% of shares outstanding, which explains the initial pop. The stock opened at $150, closed day one at $160.95, and by June 16 touched $225.64, valuing the company near $2.1 trillion. Pure scarcity at work, since there were no public results to analyze yet.

Five phases of decline

The chart breaks into distinct moves. Phase one was the launch pop from June 12 to 16, running from $161 to just above $200 on scarcity alone. Then came the first real break on June 17 to 22, when the stock dropped from roughly $190 to $155 across three sessions before flattening out. That marked the point where the initial scarcity premium began to evaporate.

What followed was a grinding slide through summer. Every pop faced selling, every dip found more sellers. The stock tested lower lows repeatedly, printing its all-time low of $104.83 just two sessions ago. Institutional holders took profits as the float expanded past the initial scarcity window, and momentum traders who bought the IPO pop exited with losses.

Tonight and Thursday change everything

SpaceX reports first quarter results after the closing bell today. Investors will finally get hard numbers on revenue, margins, and cash burn. Then on Thursday, the first insider lockup tranche expires, meaning early shareholders and employees can sell for the first time. Two catalysts, two days apart, on a stock that has gone one direction for seven weeks.

If earnings disappoint or lockup selling accelerates, expect volatility. If the company posts strong growth and insiders hold, the stock could find a bottom. The market has already priced in significant pessimism at this level.

This material is informational only and should not be construed as investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.