"This is a big deal," said one political analyst as Labour overtook Reform UK in the recent national polls for the first time since early 2025. The More in Common survey revealed Labour at 28%, leading Reform UK's 24%, and the Conservatives trailing behind at 22%. This marks a notable shift after Reform UK held steady at the top of the polls for well over a year.
Data from YouGov and Survation confirm a tightening race with Labour closing the gap, though their leads remain slim. The development has already rippled through market expectations ahead of the key Clacton by-election, where Nigel Farage is the Reform UK candidate seeking a decisive win. Analysts suggest that Labour’s newfound momentum could shrink Farage’s projected margin.
The contest in Clacton now looks more uncertain than before. Voter preferences appear to be shifting, potentially reshaping the dynamics between the major parties. As political campaigns intensify, observers are watching closely how strategies evolve, especially given Reform UK's earlier surge on immigration issues that attracted national attention.
With the election day approaching, turnout and sentiment swings could further influence the polls and betting markets. Labour's rise disrupts previous expectations, forcing both sides to recalibrate. The next surveys will be critical to see if Labour can maintain this lead or if Reform UK will regain its footing before the by-election.
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