Polymarket has trimmed the likelihood of a US-Iran ceasefire lasting two weeks before August 31 to about 51% 52%. The market saw a roughly three-point drop in this prediction over the past week as new strike threats shook traders' confidence in a stable pause.
More than $2.5 million has flowed into the market reflecting heightened interest in the outcome amid ongoing geopolitical tensions. This shift comes as fresh risks of military strikes rekindle global uncertainty and ripple through crypto markets.
The changing odds contrast with more optimistic moments earlier in the summer when calm in the Middle East helped boost risk assets like Bitcoin. Now, traders seem less confident about immediate peace prospects, signaling a possible surge in volatility if conflict escalates.
