Goldman Sachs remains optimistic about the South Korean won, Taiwan dollar, and Malaysian ringgit, even though all three have declined so far in 2026. The bank links their prospects to a surge in artificial intelligence-related investments reshaping Asia’s currency landscape.
Goldman highlights two main forces influencing Asian economies right now: an energy supply shock and a wave of AI capital spending. This dynamic divides the region between chip exporters benefiting from tech demand and oil importers struggling with energy price pressures. The bank expects this split to persist as investments in AI continue to grow.
South Korea shows the most promising outlook. Goldman forecasts its current account surplus will nearly double this year, reaching about $300 billion, or 13.9% of GDP. Reduced foreign equity outflows support this surplus, setting the stage for the won to strengthen.
The Taiwan dollar is also favored, boosted by booming semiconductor exports and a widening trade surplus expected to hit 25% of GDP. Stable interest rates, strong tech exports, and ample US dollar reserves underpin its position.
Meanwhile, the Malaysian ringgit benefits from sustained AI-driven economic growth, solid exports, and steady foreign direct investment, according to Goldman.
On the other hand, currencies tied more closely to energy imports have faced greater challenges. Thailand’s baht suffers from falling gold prices and weaker real interest rates, while Indonesia’s rupiah struggles with governance and policy uncertainties, despite efforts to attract foreign capital. The Philippine peso remains vulnerable due to high oil costs.
Market data shows these AI-linked currencies have all lost value against the dollar index, which is up nearly 3% this year. The Singapore dollar fell just 0.28%, the ringgit 0.67%, the won 1.64%, and the Taiwan dollar 3.05%. But these declines are milder compared to energy importers: the peso dropped 4.48%, the baht 5.97%, the rupee 6.01%, and the rupiah led losses at 7.30%. Even the weakest AI-focused currency has outperformed the biggest energy currency loser by over a percentage point.
China remains an outlier, with the yuan gaining 3.32% against the dollar. Goldman projects a 12-month USD/CNY rate of 6.50, citing undervaluation and Beijing’s efforts to internationalize its currency.
