Goldman Sachs dropped its forecast for US GDP growth in the second quarter to 1.8%, slashing the previous estimate by 0.8 percentage points just before the official numbers hit. The downgrade reflects challenges like trade tensions, shifts in inventory levels, and the impact of releasing petroleum reserves.
Inventory trends play a big role. When companies reduce stock rather than restock, GDP takes a hit since less buying activity occurs. Meanwhile, the government’s drawdown of strategic oil reserves can skew GDP data, making the economy look weaker on paper than it really is.
Despite this quarterly setback, Goldman remains optimistic about the full year. It sticks to a 2.6% growth forecast for 2026, which stands notably above the Bloomberg consensus of 2.0%. The bank expects the economy to rebound in the latter half of the year, supported by fiscal stimulus from tax cuts, looser financial conditions encouraging investment, and easing trade frictions.
Goldman projects global growth at 2.8% for 2026 and continues to perform well independently. Its Q2 earnings released mid-July showed $20.98 earnings per share.
Crypto investors may find Goldman’s outlook curious since the report doesn’t mention digital assets at all no Bitcoin, stablecoins, or tokenized products despite the growing belief in crypto’s transformative potential for finance.
Markets responded with a slight pullback in crypto prices following the forecast revision.
