Ethereum has faced one of its toughest stretches, with nearly six months of capitulation marking a rare phase where most holders are underwater. According to Swissblock's Supply in Profit/Loss model, the majority of ETH supply has been at a loss since late January.
The latest on-chain data reveals about 45.7 million ETH currently held below breakeven, compared to 31.6 million in profit. Although sellers dominated early 2026, causing widespread unrealized losses, a strong recovery between April and May briefly moved many coins back toward breakeven levels.
Ethereum’s price dipped near $1,500 in June but has since bounced back, reclaiming key 26-day and 50-day moving averages. ETH now trades around $1,890 as buyers regain intermediate trend control. The next hurdle lies close above, near the declining 100-day EMA around $1,935, which has previously capped rallies. Breaking past this point could pave the way for testing the $2,000 psychological mark.
This pattern of prolonged capitulation followed by a sharp rebound often sets the stage for lasting market bottoms something ETH appears to be building toward. Meanwhile, the recovery hints at renewed momentum after months of bearish pressure.
Investors tracking tokenized funds and broader crypto trends should watch how Ethereum navigates these moving averages. A sustained move above the 100-day EMA may attract fresh buying interest and mark a turning point for the asset.
