Galaxy Research has cut the likelihood of the CLARITY Act passing in 2026 from 50% down to 30%, following the release of the Senate's final 616-page bill text. The lengthy legislation, blending crypto market rules with ethics and enforcement measures, now faces mounting challenges ahead of the key Senate vote.
The CLARITY Act merges proposals from both the Senate Agriculture and Banking Committees, incorporating new rules around stablecoins, custody, and protections for developers and digital asset intermediaries. Despite these provisions, lawmakers struggle to build the 60-vote coalition needed to beat a filibuster, complicating the path forward.
Galaxy Research’s head of research, Alex Thorn, emphasized the difficulty in securing bipartisan support, noting the bill doesn’t have a majority-party majority locked down yet. Adding to the complexity, a new ethics section prohibits certain senior officials and their spouses from issuing or sponsoring digital assets while in office, sparking fresh debate.
With August recess approaching, the Senate calendar tightens, making swift resolution essential. The CLARITY Act’s fate now hinges on bridging remaining divides before lawmakers break, marking a critical moment for crypto regulation in the US.
