China began producing immersion deep ultraviolet lithography machines in 2026, a key breakthrough for semiconductor manufacturing. The initial output is limited about five units this year, rising to twenty next year. In contrast, Dutch giant ASML plans to deliver around 130 such machines in 2026 alone, highlighting China's current production at under 4% of ASML’s capacity.
Impact on ASML’s Revenue and Geopolitical Tensions
China accounted for a third of ASML’s revenue in 2025, but that share was already expected to shrink to roughly 20% amid mounting US-China trade tensions and new restrictions. The recent MATCH Act in the US further tightens controls on ASML’s sales to Chinese companies, despite objections from the Netherlands. This legislative pressure coincides with China’s move to domestically produce lithography tools, threatening ASML’s dominance in a market critical to global chip supply chains.
Ripple Effects on Crypto Mining and AI Hardware
These developments go beyond chipmakers. Bitcoin mining rigs rely heavily on ASIC chips manufactured with advanced lithography tools. Any disruption or shift in the chipmaking landscape could increase hardware costs and delay production, potentially impacting network hash rates. While China’s production volume is small for now, the symbolic milestone weakens export controls and signals a strategic effort to reduce dependency on single suppliers. This shift could reshape supply chains for AI and crypto mining hardware alike.
This material provides analysis and is not financial advice.
