Jim Ferraioli, head of Digital Currencies Research and Strategy at Charles Schwab, has put a new stamp on Bitcoin’s valuation, pegging its fair price at around $95,000. Instead of relying on market hype or chart patterns, Ferraioli zeroes in on the hard numbers behind mining economics specifically, what it costs the least efficient miners to produce a single Bitcoin.
Breaking down the data from Glassnode, Ferraioli’s model distinguishes between two mining tiers. Efficient miners, who benefit from modern equipment and cheap energy sources, churn out Bitcoin at about $60,000 per coin. Meanwhile, inefficient operators, burdened by older machinery or higher electricity costs, face nearly $95,000 per Bitcoin mined.
That $95,000 mark is more than a figure pulled from thin air. It acts as a near-term fair value anchor for Bitcoin’s market price. The logic follows basic commodity principles: if mining costs for many miners hover near $95,000, the market price needs to stay at or above that level to keep mining economically sustainable. Otherwise, a mass capitulation of mining could ensue, threatening network security.
On the flip side, the $60,000 production cost for efficient miners forms a strong fundamental support layer. This level roughly coincides with Bitcoin’s 200-week moving average, which currently ranges between $60,000 and $62,000. Such alignment adds a technical layer confirming production costs as a key reference point.
This approach proved especially relevant during price dips below $80,000 in mid-2026 when many miners operated at a loss relative to the $95,000 cost. Schwab’s analysis emphasized these mining cost floors as key indicators of Bitcoin’s underlying resilience, despite near-term price softness.
Historically, the $95,000 line hasn’t only served as a cost baseline but also worked as a resistance level during previous market cycles, underlining its real-world influence on Bitcoin dynamics.
Charles Schwab’s growing involvement in crypto research, marked by Ferraioli’s 2025 arrival from Morgan Stanley, shows how mining economics are gaining traction among institutional investors. This framework ties together measurable inputs like energy expenses, hardware depreciation, and other operational costs, offering a tangible way to value Bitcoin that resonates with traditional finance minds.
