"The recent rebound looks more like a pause than a reversal," said crypto analyst Rei Researcher, capturing the mood among investors as Bitcoin showed signs of weakness after a streak of gains. Following a $225.1 million outflow from its spot ETF on July 23, ending the longest inflow run in nine months, BTC slipped slightly but remains shackled to a long-term downtrend. Bulls have repeatedly failed to push past the $67,000 supply barrier, allowing bears to regain control.
On-chain data tells a more cautious story. The Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio, which indicates if holders are in profit, is still above 1.0, a level that historically marks bear markets bottoming out only after dipping below this threshold. Yet Bitcoin hasn't fallen to that point in this cycle. The analyst noted the market is not overheated with bullish momentum but is also far from having hit rock bottom.
Additional metrics provide insight into the ongoing struggle. The percentage of Bitcoin supply currently in profit stands at 57.5%, while the 30-day average of the long-term holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) remains at 0.86, below the key 1.0 mark that signals bear market relief. In previous cycles, supply in profit had to reach at least 64% and maintain for weeks before confirming a sustainable trend change. Until these markers improve steadily, any price upswing is likely a retracement within the dominant bearish phase.
plus BTC older than six months, which surged to 12%-16% of exchange inflows during the June bounce, has sharply retreated to just 0.8%. A significant group of investors who bought between one month and two years ago carry cost bases in the $72,000 to $102,000 range. Their willingness to sell could pressure prices further, adding a supply overhang that threatens to stall any lasting recovery. Traders and holders should brace for potential waves of selling that could force deeper capitulation before the market moves decisively upward.
