Arthur Hayes has been quietly stacking Ethena tokens. Over three days, the crypto trader picked up 9.05 million ENA worth roughly $773,000, according to on-chain data from Lookonchain. The timing cuts sharp. Ethena unlocks 171.88 million tokens on August 5, a release worth $15.36 million that will test whether the market can swallow the fresh supply without collapsing the price.

The purchases came in two batches. On Monday, Hayes bought 6 million ENA at an average of $0.09 per token, dropping $525,000. Two days earlier, he grabbed 3.05 million for $248,000. That second trade came with a rotation out of another position. Hayes sold 6.16 million Synapse tokens (SYN) for $658,000, a move that fits a broader pattern of portfolio shuffling across his holdings.

ENA has climbed about 11% over the past two weeks after bottoming in June. But the unlock hanging over the market poses real risk. Token releases typically trigger short-term selling pressure. BeInCrypto's analysis of past ENA unlocks shows the token fell in the week following release in 7 out of 11 cases, though median moves on unlock day itself stayed below 1%.

A Track Record of Rough Timing

Hayes' buying pattern, though, raises questions. Back in February, he bought 15.8 million ENA at $0.23 and sold 3.6 million at $0.14, locking in losses. The same miscalculation haunted his recent Ethereum trades. On Monday, Hayes bought 1,337 ETH at $1,869 per coin by sending Galaxy Digital 2.5 million USDC. Two days prior, he had dumped 2,364 ETH into Cumberland and Galaxy Digital, pulling in 4.3 million USDC at $1,821 per coin. That sale cost him $241,000 in realized losses, a 5.3% haircut on the trade.

Hayes built his 7,213 ETH position at an average of $1,923 through July purchases. Whether the August 5 ENA unlock will pressure his newest crypto bets remains an open question. The market could absorb the supply quietly, as happened in July, or it could trigger the kind of dump that punishes late entries.

This article is informational only and does not constitute investment advice. Cryptocurrency markets are volatile and past trading performance does not guarantee future results.