Amazon’s cloud unit AWS is expected to hit nearly $40.5 billion in revenue for Q2 2026, according to Visible Alpha consensus data from S&P Global Market Intelligence. That level of growth remains the main driver for the stock, especially with analysts eyeing a 33.8% operating margin for AWS this quarter.
TD Cowen forecasts AWS could accelerate its year-over-year growth to around 35.5% in Q2, a notable increase from last year’s pace. This growth is key because AWS, while accounting for less than a third of Amazon’s total sales, often generates the majority of its operating income. Investors focus closely on whether AWS can maintain margins as it scales, since margin pressure from investments could temper enthusiasm even if revenue beats expectations.
the Street projects Amazon’s total revenue for Q2 will reach approximately $196.4 billion, with earnings per share around $1.82. Retail margins, especially in North America versus international markets, will be monitored for shifts driven by advertising mix and efficiencies in logistics and automation. Ads revenue continues to quietly boost margins by leveraging retail traffic, making even small improvements impactful.
Capital expenditures and guidance updates related to AI infrastructure demand could shake market expectations. Heavy spending on training clusters and AI inference capacity might weigh on margins near-term but aim to secure long-term revenue growth. Comments on enterprise customer budgets will also influence outlook beyond Q2.
Other factors like currency fluctuations, shipping costs, and the timing of Prime Day (more relevant to Q3) may complicate the reading of trends. Still, the key metrics to watch after the earnings release are AWS revenue compared to consensus and consolidated operating income against guidance.
